Spatiotemporal Distribution of TemperatureAltitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser. ; ed. Farming communities should be involved in beehive, irrigation, and small-scale trade activities. However, during bega season the trend of all stations was downward. The trend of increasing maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature. The capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. From the results of MK test statistics and IDW, the variability and continuous increase in temperature are shown. The problem is high in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the majority of the population live on rainfed agriculture. Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. All year-round rainfall regionIt has many rainy days than any part of the country. Results of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology. All crop production shows considerably high correlation with maximum temperature and stronger correlation with barley, while in the case of minimum temperature, poor correlation was observed for all crops. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. Here, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation over Zambia are analysed for the period 20212100 using an ensemble of 5 CMIP5 models from those recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Within this regional context, temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on rainfall depth due to climate change. The study area encompasses six . The region experiences most of its rain during summer (kiremt), while some placesalso receive spring (Belg) rain. **10% level of significance. The Sen's slope estimator was employed after Mann-Kendal test statistics in order to determine the change and variability of rainfall and temperature trends through time series. Figure 1. This is particularly the case for the local community, whose economy is susceptible to variability and the erratic nature of rainfall and water shortage; recurrent drought is a common phenomenon. Likewise, as presented in Table2, the distribution of annual rainfall has shown to be very low with high PCI. The magnitude of the significantly increasing trend of mean annual rainfall of 0.28 mm/year and 1.07% (DB station) was recorded, whereas a significantly decreasing trend of mean annual rainfall was observed with the values of 8.62 mm/year and 27.88% (HG station). Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. 2010; Simane et al. This study involves the observation of climatic variables, i.e. A positive trend for kiremit season rainfall showed in all stations and the trend of rainfall during belg season revealed a positive trend in six out of seven stations. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. Generally, as can be seen from Figure3, there has been a high increase in overall temperature, which may result in a decrease in productivity and food insecurity. In kiremit season, rain is essential but it extends to the bega season during the harvesting stage. Assessing the long-term spatiotemporal rainfall distribution pattern is the most significant component in the climate analysis of a given country, more specifically at the local and regional levels where the effect of climate change is worse. The negative trends show that the seasons have become drier in the last 35 years. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. The Physiographic Divisions of Ethiopia, 3.3. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. 2015). 2012). Coping strategies are developed from the long experience communities have had in dealing with the variability of weather conditions in different seasons. The aim of this study was to evaluate climate variability and characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological droughts using a merged satellite-gauge rainfall across the major agroecological zones (AEZs) of the rift valley lakes basin. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. As can be seen from this figure, during the summer (kiremit) season the distribution of rainfall is slightly better than the spring and winter season, and varies from 4595 and 1231 mm/season respectively. In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). The Geologic Processes: Endogenic and Exogenic Forces, 2.3. 2010 ). Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. Global warming has become the greatest barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity. This is because the temperature and the amount of energy reaching the surface isdirectly related with the directness of the sun.The direction of rain bearing winds (leeward or windward side) also determines the temperaturevariations in mountainous regions. In line with Rashid et al. 2014; Mondal et al. The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. 2013; Pachauri et al. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. In the study area, June is the sowing period for barley and wheat crops. Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. Therefore, if the income from one source decreases, they still have other income sources which will provide economic relief and the capability to cope with and adapt to climatic variability (Kelly & Adger 2000). Awareness creation: The communities in the watershed are dependent on the natural climate, therefore the availability of climatic information is a precondition to enable them to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climatic variability. For the kiremit (summer season), the main rainfall source is the northward oscillation of ITCZ and the development of high-pressure systems along the southern Atlantic as well as South Indian Oceans. There has been a continuous decrease in the duration and distribution of rainfall during the last 35 years. Another study by Di Falco et al. Therefore, long-term analysis of climatic trends has been used to characterize the situations (Singh et al. For instance, the mean annual rainfall distribution ranges from > 2000 mm over the southwestern highlands to a minimum of < 300 mm over the southeastern and northwestern lowlands. This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. The rate and variability of increasing temperature have dramatically increased, making it more difficult for local communities to foresee the intensity and magnitude of temperature even for the next few years. During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. Therefore, clear information about the annual and seasonal rainfall distribution is highly important for policy planners and local users. 2005; Batisani & Yarnal 2010; Randell & Gray 2016). For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. Overall, the five years moving average trend of average annual temperature of the study watershed is increasing by about 0.95 C. 2016). It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but a substantial amount of information that became available afterwards has also been included.While this study is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change impact on the RMs economy it does reflect the breadth and depth of researches that had been done in the RM to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the sectors development issues facing the country. Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. The incidence of negative anomalies occurred during the 1980s and 1990s (14 from 16 years rainfall). Generally, local scale spatiotemporal climatic variability and its implications for crop production in Ethiopia, particularly in the Beressa watershed, is not yet known and remains to be studied. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. Such studies ignored the localized trends of rainfall and temperature, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % of annual and seasonal rainfall (19802014). 1.1. From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. Rainfall Regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution, both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and the Horn. 2006; Rashid et al. In Ethiopia, the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature varies widely (Regassa et al. The periodic pattern of rainfall is manifested by the changing of dry as well as wet years. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). 2011; Funk et al. Following theposition of the overhead sun, the ITCZ shifts north and south of the equator. Additionally, studies of rainfall and temperature variations in larger areas would in general be of little use for local level agricultural production (Gebre et al. It is a rainfall region in the southwestern partof the country. In Ethiopia, as in allplaces in the tropics, the air is frost free and changes in solar angles are small making intensesolar radiation. Precipitation projections indicate increased mean precipitation with more frequent extreme rainfall during monsoon season in the EH region, and a wetter cold season in the WH region. Climate Change/Global Warming: Causes, Consequences and Response Mechanisms, CHAPTER SIX SOILS, NATURAL VEGETATION AND WILDLIFE RESOURCES OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN. In the last few decades, incidence of climate change related hazards have manifested in the form of recurrent drought, erosive rain, rainfall variability and flood events (Kenabatho et al. 3.1 Spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia. The details of these seven stations are presented in Table2. Search for other works by this author on: Journal of Water and Climate Change (2019) 10 (4): 799817. The monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 1981-2011. According to Al-Bakri et al. Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). (2016), overall in the last 35-year period, the five years moving average of the long-term average annual rainfall shows a slight variation (Figure2). At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of the Basin experienced declining trends on annual and seasonal timescales. temperature is high during the daytime in some places, and is considerably reduced at nightresulting maximum difference in the daily range.But in the case of monthly averages, variation is minimal and the annual range of temperature issmall. The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake. Therefore, there is a need for community-based coping and adaptation strategies such as adopting soil, water conservation and water harvesting strategies; and increasing diversified crops, high value and market oriented crops, fast growing crops and climate resistant crops, which are less susceptible to future climatic variability. The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. Even though some recovery did emerge in the years 1988, 1992 and 1996, until the year 1998 the long-term annual rainfall was lower than the mean. Winter rainfall regionThis rainfall region receives rain from the northeasterly winds. The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. 1982; Burn & Elnur 2002; Yue et al. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and theannual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. For example, months from March to June in Ethiopiahave records of highest temperatures. Conversely, low flow conditions will intensify during the warm months. This cereal crop shows stronger correlation with the kiremit rains. In line with the study by Wu et al. 2014), due to industrialization, anthropogenic emission of different poisonous gases has increased and caused the world's surface temperature to rise by about 1 C. Here are the average temperatures. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Density distribution plots of observed climate indices for meteorological stations and gridded indices are also analysed, which indicate significant negative trends in the annual number of frost days and significant increasing trends in warm nights in the EH region over the 19602000 period. The CHIRPS was developed by the Climate Hazards Group (CHG) at the University of California (Knapp et al. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin. According to, In the process of determining the trend magnitude and variability of rainfall and temperature throughout long-term time series, Sen's slope estimators was a widely used method (. The area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes. However, after 1999 and onwards, recovery in the long-term average rainfall emerged higher than the average mean, except for the drier conditions in 2002 and 2013 which were lower than the long-term mean. Future trends are assessed using the ensemble mean of eight regional climate model data under two emission scenarios, provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. The annual maxima of 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. This study investigates trends of climate extreme indices in the Komadugu-Yobe Basin (KYB) based on observed data of the period 1971-2017 as well as regional climate model (RCM) simulations for the historical period (1979-2005), the near future (2020-2050), and the far future (2060-2090). Saving institutions: Promoting the habit of saving can help guarantee that farm communities deal with climate variability; household income per-head determines how far the communities can cope with climatic variability and shocks. In Ethiopia and elsewhere in the Horn,temperature shows seasonal variations. This holds true in both the highlands and lowlands. During this time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds. In autumn the ITCZ shiftstowards the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies. The Impacts of Relief on Biophysical and Socioeconomic Conditions, CHAPTER FOUR DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND WATER RESOURCE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 4.3. The indicators included in this study are based on many different information sources. During this season, Northeasterly windsoriginating from the landmass of Asia dominantly prevail Ethiopian landmass. This global warming (increase in surface temperature) may influence the long-term precipitation pattern; in addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of weather shock has led to an increase in sea level (Barnett et al. The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. 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